You may have heard of the term "Disease X" in the news or on social media, but what does it actually mean? Is it a new virus that is threatening to cause a global pandemic? Is it a secret weapon of bioterrorism? Is it a hoax or a conspiracy theory?
The answer is none of the above. Disease X is not a specific disease, but a placeholder name that was adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2018 to represent a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic. The WHO uses this term to prepare for the possibility of an emerging infectious disease that is not yet known to science, but has the potential to spread across countries and continents, and cause severe illness and death.
Why do we need to prepare for Disease X?
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown us how devastating a new virus can be, especially when it emerges without warning and spreads rapidly among people who have no immunity or effective treatments. The novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was the first Disease X, but it may not be the last. History has taught us that new pathogens can emerge at any time, from any source, and with unpredictable consequences. Some examples of past Disease Xs are:
- - The 1918 influenza pandemic, also known as the Spanish flu, which killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.
- - The 1981 emergence of HIV/AIDS, which has caused over 35 million deaths and continues to affect millions of people today.
- - The 2002 outbreak of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), which infected over 8,000 people and killed nearly 800 in 29 countries.
- - The 2014 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa, which infected over 28,000 people and killed over 11,000 in six countries.
- - The 2015 outbreak of Zika in the Americas, which caused thousands of cases of microcephaly (small head size) and other birth defects in babies born to infected mothers.
These examples show that Disease X can come from different sources, such as animals, humans, or laboratories, and can affect different populations, such as young or old, healthy or immunocompromised, urban or rural. They also show that Disease X can have different impacts, such as high mortality, long-term disability, social stigma, economic disruption, or political instability.
How can we prevent or respond to Disease X?
The WHO has developed a framework called the R&D Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, which aims to accelerate the development of vaccines, diagnostics, and treatments for emerging infectious diseases. The framework identifies a shortlist of blueprint priority diseases that pose the greatest public health risk and require urgent research and development. These include well-known diseases such as Ebola, Zika, Lassa fever, Nipah virus, Rift Valley fever, and Marburg virus, as well as Disease X.
The inclusion of Disease X in the list challenges the WHO and its partners to ensure that their planning and capabilities are flexible enough to adapt to any unknown pathogen. This means focusing on broad-spectrum technologies that can target multiple classes of viruses or bacteria, rather than specific strains. It also means strengthening the global surveillance and response systems that can detect and contain outbreaks before they become pandemics.
The WHO has also launched a project called the One Health High-Level Expert Panel (OHHLEP), which brings together experts from human health, animal health, plant health, and environmental health to identify potential sources and drivers of Disease X. The panel will provide recommendations on how to prevent spillover events from animals to humans or plants, and how to reduce the risk factors that facilitate the emergence and spread of pathogens.
What can you do to protect yourself and others from Disease X?
While we cannot predict when or where Disease X will emerge, we can take some steps to reduce our exposure and transmission of infectious diseases in general. These include:
- - Practicing good hygiene habits, such as washing your hands frequently with soap and water or alcohol-based sanitizer, covering your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing, and avoiding touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
- - Following public health advice on vaccination, testing, isolation, quarantine, masking, social distancing, and travel restrictions during outbreaks or pandemics.
- - Seeking medical attention if you have symptoms of fever, cough, shortness of breath, or other signs of respiratory infection.
- - Reporting any unusual or unexplained illness or death in animals or plants to the relevant authorities.
- - Avoiding contact with sick or dead animals or plants, especially if they are wild or exotic.
- - Avoiding consumption or trade of illegal or unsafe animal or plant products.
- - Supporting efforts to conserve biodiversity and ecosystems, which can help prevent habitat loss and environmental degradation that increase the risk of zoonotic diseases.
Disease X may sound scary, but it is not
inevitable. By working together, we can prevent, detect, and respond to any
emerging infectious disease that threatens our health and well-being.
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